August 2026
US Expert Weather Outlook
What our meteorologists expect this month — and what it means for your outdoor plans.
Choose your region:
⚠️ What to watch
😰Extreme heat risk increases from the Central/Southern Plains to the Lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast around Aug 14–16
⚠️Heat and limited rain may cause drought to develop quickly in the Central/Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley
☁️Monsoon downpours may hit the Southwest, Great Basin and Rockies around mid-August, while the Southern Plains trend drier
🔥Above-normal wildfire potential across the Northwest and interior West, plus renewed risk in the Southern Plains
🌀Atlantic hurricane activity should be quieter than usual, but peaks August–October — Gulf/East Coast impacts still possible
What's going on with temperature
Warmer than usual across most of the West, Central/Southern Plains, and much of the South and Southeast
- The strongest warm signals are over the Southern Plains and coastal California
- The Northern Plains, Great Lakes and Northeast are harder to predict, with bigger day-to-day swings
- Alaska leans warmer in the far eastern Mainland and Southeast; Hawaii is warmer than usual too
What's going on with precipitation
Wetter across the Southwest and Great Basin — drier in the Southern Plains and Pacific Northwest coast
- Monsoon moisture moving north could bring wetter periods as far as the Rockies
- Drier conditions are favored across the Southern Plains and the Washington/Oregon coasts
- Most of the eastern U.S. has no clear signal, though parts of the Northeast lean wetter
- Alaska leans wetter in the west and north, drier in the southeast; Hawaii leans wetter too, especially Maui and the Big Island
🤔 Why this is happening
›A large area of high pressure aloft favors long warm stretches across the West and South
›A southward dip in the jet stream can bring cooler, unsettled weather from Canada into the Northern Plains and Great Lakes — shifting toward the Northeast by mid-August
›Monsoon moisture moving north from Mexico fuels storm chances across the interior West
⚠️A moderate El Niño supports the hotter, drier lean in the Southern Plains and points to a quieter Atlantic hurricane season — though hurricanes remain possible, since activity typically picks up in August
Details by region
Scroll down or tap a region in the menu above.
Pacific Coast
WA, OR, CA
☀️ Warm, with little rain relief in the Northwest
- A warmer-than-usual August is favored, with the strongest confidence along the California coast
- Coastal Washington and Oregon lean drier; California has no strong wet-or-dry signal for the month
- Drought may persist or slowly expand across the Northwest
- Wildfire potential is above normal across the Northwest, extending into northern California
🤔 Why this is happening
›High pressure aloft favors long warm stretches here, while monsoon moisture stays mostly to the south and east — offering little rain relief
Interior West & Southwest
ID, NV, UT, AZ, NM, CO
☔ More monsoon moisture, but uneven rainfall
- Wetter-than-usual conditions are favored, with wetter periods possible reaching into the Rockies
- Temperatures still lean warmer overall, though clouds and storms may interrupt the heat
- Monsoon rain may gradually ease drought in Arizona, far western New Mexico and the Great Basin — but improvement will be uneven
🤔 Why this is happening
›Monsoon moisture from Mexico spreads into this region, increasing storm chances even as the broader pattern stays warm
Northern Rockies & Plains
MT, WY, ND, SD, NE
🌡️ Warm spells interrupted by Canadian air
- The temperature outlook is more changeable here than farther south, especially in the Dakotas and Nebraska
- Cooler Canadian air can bring short-lived breaks between warmer stretches
- Drought may persist or expand in parts of North Dakota and western South Dakota despite occasional storms
🤔 Why this is happening
›This region sits closer to the path of dips in the jet stream, so cooler air from Canada interrupts the broader warm pattern more often than farther south
Midwest & Great Lakes
MN, IA, MO, WI, IL, IN, MI, OH
⛈️ Alternating stormy and quieter periods
- The northern Midwest and Great Lakes may swing between warm spells and cooler periods; southern parts lean warmer
- Storms are more likely earlier in the month; by mid-August, the cooler, stormier pattern shifts toward the Northeast
- Parts of Minnesota, Wisconsin and western Iowa that miss the heavier storms could see drought develop or worsen
🤔 Why this is happening
›This region sits in the path of the jet stream's southward dips, so it swings between warm ridges and cooler, stormier breaks more than areas farther south
Central & Southern Plains / Lower Mississippi Valley
KS, OK, TX, AR, LA
🔥 The main heat zone
- This region has one of the country's strongest signals for a hotter-than-usual August
- Drier-than-usual conditions are favored, though occasional storms may interrupt the heat
- NOAA highlights a mid-August extreme heat risk, with the possibility of drought developing quickly
🤔 Why this is happening
›A moderate El Niño and high pressure aloft combine here, favoring persistent heat and limiting rain more than almost anywhere else in the country
Southeast
MS, AL, TN, KY, GA, FL, SC, NC
☁️ Hot, with highly variable rainfall
- Warmer-than-usual temperatures are favored
- There's no clear wet-or-dry signal for the month as a whole — it depends on which weather systems pass through
- A wetter start to August should help existing drought gradually ease
- Extreme heat may become a concern around mid-month, with tropical moisture as a wildcard
🤔 Why this is happening
›The Southeast sits between the drier Plains ridge and the more active tropics, so rainfall depends heavily on which pattern wins out week to week
Northeast & Mid-Atlantic
WV, VA, MD, DE, PA, NJ, NY, CT, RI, MA, VT, NH, ME, DC
🌧️ More changeable, with better rain chances
- Around mid-August, the jet stream may dip south, bringing cooler Canadian air and more weather systems into the region
- Parts of the Northeast lean wetter, and more frequent rain should gradually ease drought — recovery may be slower in parts of the Mid-Atlantic where groundwater remains low
- This doesn't mean constant rain or a cool month overall — just a more changeable pattern than farther south
🤔 Why this is happening
›This is the region most likely to feel the mid-month shift in the jet stream, bringing more variety in temperature and rain than the persistent heat farther south
Alaska
AK
☔ Wetter in the west and north
- Low pressure may bring unsettled weather to central Alaska early in August, shifting toward western Alaska by mid-month
- Western and northern Mainland Alaska lean wetter, while Southeast Alaska leans drier
- The temperature outlook is mixed, with the clearest warm signal in the far eastern Mainland and Southeast
🤔 Why this is happening
›Alaska sits mostly outside the ridge pattern driving heat farther south — a drifting area of low pressure is what's steering this month's wetter weather toward the west and north
Hawaii
HI
🌺 Warmer and wetter than usual
- Above-normal temperatures are favored across all the islands
- August also leans wetter, with above-normal rainfall favored overall
- This is about total rainfall over the month, not rain every day — no drought development is expected
🤔 Why this is happening
›Warmer-than-usual surrounding ocean waters are the main driver for August's warmth — but unlike the drier pattern El Niño typically brings to Hawaii, this month's wetter lean looks more tied to near-term tropical moisture than to the broader seasonal signal