☀️ Warm, with little rain relief in the Northwest

• A warmer-than-usual August is favored, with the strongest confidence along the California coast
• Coastal Washington and Oregon lean drier; California has no strong wet-or-dry signal for the month
• Drought may persist or slowly expand across the Northwest
• Wildfire potential is above normal across the Northwest, extending into northern California

☔ More monsoon moisture, but uneven rainfall

• Wetter-than-usual conditions are favored, with wetter periods possible reaching into the Rockies
• Temperatures still lean warmer overall, though clouds and storms may interrupt the heat
• Monsoon rain may gradually ease drought in Arizona, far western New Mexico and the Great Basin — but improvement will be uneven

🌡️ Warm spells interrupted by Canadian air

• The temperature outlook is more changeable here than farther south, especially in the Dakotas and Nebraska
• Cooler Canadian air can bring short-lived breaks between warmer stretches
• Drought may persist or expand in parts of North Dakota and western South Dakota despite occasional storms

⛈️ Alternating stormy and quieter periods

• The northern Midwest and Great Lakes may swing between warm spells and cooler periods; southern parts lean warmer
• Storms are more likely earlier in the month; by mid-August, the cooler, stormier pattern shifts toward the Northeast
• Parts of Minnesota, Wisconsin and western Iowa that miss the heavier storms could see drought develop or worsen

🔥 The main heat zone

• This region has one of the country's strongest signals for a hotter-than-usual August
• Drier-than-usual conditions are favored, though occasional storms may interrupt the heat
• NOAA highlights a mid-August extreme heat risk, with the possibility of drought developing quickly

☁️ Hot, with highly variable rainfall

• Warmer-than-usual temperatures are favored
• There's no clear wet-or-dry signal for the month as a whole — it depends on which weather systems pass through
• A wetter start to August should help existing drought gradually ease
• Extreme heat may become a concern around mid-month, with tropical moisture as a wildcard

🌧️ More changeable, with better rain chances

• Around mid-August, the jet stream may dip south, bringing cooler Canadian air and more weather systems into the region
• Parts of the Northeast lean wetter, and more frequent rain should gradually ease drought — recovery may be slower in parts of the Mid-Atlantic where groundwater remains low
• This doesn't mean constant rain or a cool month overall — just a more changeable pattern than farther south

☔ Wetter in the west and north

• Low pressure may bring unsettled weather to central Alaska early in August, shifting toward western Alaska by mid-month
• Western and northern Mainland Alaska lean wetter, while Southeast Alaska leans drier
• The temperature outlook is mixed, with the clearest warm signal in the far eastern Mainland and Southeast

🌺 Warmer and wetter than usual

• Above-normal temperatures are favored across all the islands
• August also leans wetter, with above-normal rainfall favored overall
• This is about total rainfall over the month, not rain every day — no drought development is expected

🌊 Cooler start, with rain returning

• A dip in the jet stream keeps the region cooler, cloudier and more unsettled than usual for the first part of the month
• Rain runs above normal for the whole coast, with the best chances in Oregon
• A narrow strip right along the coast stays cooler than usual too
• Wildfire potential stays above normal across most of the Northwest and far northern California, though the coast itself gets a break from the wetter start to the month

☔ Wetter, with the monsoon still running

• Rain stays above normal across the region as monsoon moisture keeps arriving from Mexico
• Temperatures lean warmer overall for the month
• Wildfire potential is still above normal in central and southern Idaho, northern Nevada and northern Utah

🌾 About an average month

• Neither temperature nor rainfall shows a strong lean here this month
• Existing drought is expected to stick around, with little relief in sight

🌤️ Warmer in the south, wetter in the east

• The warm lean is strongest in the southwest of the region, closer to the heat over the Plains
• The eastern Great Lakes trend wetter than usual, which should help lake levels heading into fall
• Wildfire potential is above normal in northern Minnesota, northern Wisconsin and the western Upper Peninsula of Michigan

🔥 The hottest, driest spot on the map

• This region has the strongest signal for a hotter-than-usual September, especially in the first ten days
• Rain trends below normal here too, as the same high pressure limiting clouds also limits storms
• The exception is southeast Texas, which could see a heavy soaking from tropical moisture moving in off the Gulf
• Fast-developing drought is a real risk here around Sep 10–16
• Wildfire potential is above normal across the southern Plains and the Lower Mississippi Valley too

☀️ Warm all month

• Warmer-than-usual temperatures are favored across the region
• South Florida picks up some extra rain from tropical moisture, though wildfire potential there is still running above normal
• Eastern North Carolina trends drier than usual, a small exception in an otherwise wetter East Coast pattern

🌦️ Hard to call, but leaning wetter

• Temperature could go either way this month — warmer, near normal, and cooler are all close to equally likely
• Rain trends wetter for most of the region, though a narrow strip along the coast trends slightly drier

❄️ Mild southeast, cooler north and west

• The southeast, including the Panhandle, runs mild this month
• The west and north lean cooler than usual
• Rain trends above normal across most of the state

🌺 Warm and wet, the most confident call on the map

• Above-normal temperatures are favored across all the islands, and it's one of the most confident calls in this month's outlook
• Rain also leans above normal for the month