July 2026
US Expert Weather Outlook
What our meteorologists expect this month — and what it means for your outdoor plans.
Choose your region:
⚠️ What to watch
😰Dangerous heat first peaks from the Midwest into the East
🌡️By mid-July, extreme heat risk may shift back toward the Interior West and Plains
⛈️Storms may ride around the edge of the heat dome from the Plains and Great Lakes toward the East
🔥Elevated wildfire risk in the Four Corners, Great Basin, Northwest & parts of California
🌀Atlantic hurricane season continues to ramp up
What's going on with temperature
Hotter than normal in much of the West, South & East
- Warmth is broad-based, but strongest in the South
- Texas is expected to see the strongest heat this month
- For the Upper Midwest, Great Lakes and parts of the northern/central Plains, it's harder to call — temperatures could go either way this month
- Alaska: cooler southwest, warmer northeast
What's going on with precipitation
Wetter interior West — drier Pacific Northwest & Texas–Louisiana
- The clearest wetter-than-normal area is across the Southwest, Intermountain West and Rockies
- Drier-than-normal in the Pacific Northwest, north-central U.S., and parts of southeast Texas and southwest Louisiana
- New England may see a little more rain than usual, but it's less certain here
🤔 Why this is happening
›A western trough starts July, then a strong ridge supports dangerous heat over the central and eastern U.S.
›The western trough should move out quickly as high pressure rebuilds across the western and central U.S.
›"Ring-of-fire" storms ride the ridge edge from the Plains and Great Lakes toward the East
›Monsoon moisture expands into the interior West, bringing storms, lightning and local flash-flood risk
›Dry soils keep drought and wildfire concerns active in the Northwest, High Plains and parts of Texas
⚠️El Niño is present, but weaker summer teleconnections make it more of a background factor than a main driver
Details by region
Scroll down or tap a region in the menu above.
West
WA, OR, CA, NV, ID, UT, AZ, CO, NM
🔥 Very warm July, but not the same everywhere
- Warmer-than-normal for most of the West
- Pacific Northwest and inland Northwest lean drier
- Monsoon storms become more active farther inland
- Wildfire and drought concerns stay elevated in the Northwest, Great Basin and Four Corners
🤔 Why this is happening
›July starts with a western trough, but high pressure should rebuild
›Dry soils can boost heat, while monsoon moisture brings spotty relief along with lightning and flash-flood risk
Northern Rockies & Northern Plains
MT, WY, ND, SD
🌤️ Warm Rockies, drier Northern Plains
- Montana and Wyoming are expected to see the warmest temperatures
- The Dakotas are harder to predict this month
- Northern Plains lean drier than normal
- Drought may persist or develop where storms miss
🤔 Why this is happening
›This region sits near the edge of the western and central ridge, so heat is clearer in the Rockies, while the Plains stay more variable
Midwest / Great Lakes / Ohio Valley
MN, WI, MI, IL, IN, OH, northern IA
☁️ Heat early, storms at times, uncertainty later
- Dangerous heat is possible early in July
- Later in the month, temperatures look closer to normal
- The clearest dry lean is near the Upper Midwest
🤔 Why this is happening
›A strong ridge drives early heat, then the pattern may relax
›Storms can ride around the edge of the heat dome from the Plains and Great Lakes toward the East
Central Plains
NE, KS, MO, southern IA
⛅ Transition Zone
- Temperatures lean near-normal to above-normal
- Rainfall signals are mixed
- Heat can build quickly when the ridge expands
🤔 Why this is happening
›The Central Plains sit between the drier north-central pattern and the warmer, more humid air to the south and east
South
TX, OK, AR, LA, MS, AL, TN, KY
🌡️ Heat is the main story
- Texas has one of the strongest warm signals in the country
- Dangerous heat may continue even after the Midwest and East heat eases
- Southeastern Texas into western Louisiana leans drier
- Drought concerns remain focused in parts of Texas and Oklahoma
🤔 Why this is happening
›Heat dominates the pattern, but Gulf moisture can still fuel scattered storms and local downpours farther east
Southeast & Gulf Coast
GA, FL, SC, NC
☁️ Hot, humid and stormy — but drought risk is uneven
- Warmer-than-normal July is favored
- Frequent afternoon storms are likely, especially in Florida
- Rainfall may be very uneven
- Some drought relief is possible where storms repeat
🤔 Why this is happening
›This is a classic midsummer setup: heat, humidity, sea breezes and Gulf/Atlantic moisture
›Some places may get daily storms, while others stay too dry
Northeast & Mid-Atlantic
NY, PA, NJ, CT, RI, MA, VT, NH, ME, MD, DE, VA, WV
☁️ Warm East, with New England more likely to see extra rain
- Above-normal temperatures are favored
- Early July heat may be significant
- Storms may ride around the edge of the heat dome
- New England is most likely to see extra rain
🤔 Why this is happening
›A strong ridge supports early heat along the East Coast
›Later on, New England is more likely to get extra rain, while the Mid-Atlantic stays harder to predict