Planning for May?
Check your outdoor plans against a monthly outlook.
Warmer West - Cooler East
The West - N. Rockies & N.Plains - Midwest - Central plains - The South - The southeast - Northwest
National outlook
⚠️ May is peak severe weather season. Strong temperature contrasts fuel storms.
Cool East / Warm West due to a deep trough
- Best outdoor window: Southwest & Rockies
- Cooler East may mean slower warm-up for lakes, trails and mornings
Pattern shifts later in May: warmth gradually expands eastward
- Warmth spreads east later in the month
- Better setup for late-May outdoor trips
Drier North / wetter South split
- Stormier days may interrupt plans in the South
- Dry trails and dusty conditions possible farther north
What’s driving the pattern
- Western ridge keeps warmth in place
- Eastern trough brings cooler, unsettled air
- Pattern may relax later in May
⚠️ What to watch
- Heavy rain / storm risk: Gulf Coast & Texas
- Rapid warm-up: Plains → East
- Expanding dryness: Northern Plains & West
May Outlook by Region
Plan your month.
🔥 Very warm May expected
- Well above-normal temperatures (anomalies locally up to +10–15°F early May)
- Increasing fire-weather risk
- A persistent high-pressure ridge dominates
- Dry overall, with a localized above-normal precipitation signal in southern Arizona
🌤️ Warm & Dry May expected
- Above-normal temperatures
- Below-normal precipitation
- Dryness may expand southward
❄️ Cooler May expected
- Below-normal temperatures
- Persistent trough influence
- Cloudier and unsettled at times
- Slow seasonal warm-up
🌾 Drier than normal May expected
- Near-normal temperatures
- Below-normal precipitation
- Core of the dry anomaly centered over the region
- Soil moisture decline possible
⛈️ Active & wetter May expected
- Near to slightly above-normal temperatures
- Above-normal precipitation
- Repeated storm systems increase heavy rain risk
- Moisture from the Gulf fuels storms
🌦️ Warm & increasingly wet May expected
- Above-normal temperatures
- Humidity builds through the month
- Increasing chances showers & thunderstorms later
- Coastal areas slightly wetter
🌥️ Variable May expected
- Near-normal temperatures overall
- Mixed precipitation signals
- Slightly wetter signals toward northern New England
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